Kansas Fourth District-Which Democrats Should Run?

Stepping Up for the Fourth

  With the news of Rep. Mike Pompeo’s nomination for CIA chief, Kansas’ Fourth congressional district will suddenly be vacant. Considering Pompeo will almost surely be confirmed, state laws call for a special election to be held, for which party conventions select candidates. Kansas’ last US House special election occurred in 1950, setting up 2017’s race as an exciting prospect for avid politicos.

Kansas' 4th District

On the Republican side, numerous figures have discussed running. Former Representative Todd Tiahrt, who represented the region from 1994 until an ill-fated senate bid in 2010, has already confirmed his potential interest. However, there are certainly questions about Tiahrt’s chances of making it through a contested convention. After all, his primary campaign against Mike Pompeo in 2014 ended badly, with Tiahrt losing to Pompeo by a whopping 26-point margin. During that cycle, Tiahrt ran a strange underdog campaign, positioning himself towards the center on some issues like campaign finance reform, taking Libertarian stances on others like NSA surveillance, and trying to outflank Pompeo to the right on Obamacare. This curious mix combined with relatively weak fundraising to hand him a decisive, crushing loss despite his high name recognition. With this loss in mind though, perhaps Tiahrt will face an uphill battle to win over the district’s Republicans, especially those loyal to Mike Pompeo’s faction.

            Another major Republican all but expected to run is State Treasurer Ron Estes, who has a website where voters can declare support for a campaign. The groundwork is there, and unlike many state-level Republicans, Estes has avoided controversy pertaining to the Brownback administration and its brutally failed economic experiment. In fact, he has at times challenged Brownback on ideas like pension cuts, which Estes opposed. Moreover, Estes served two terms as Sedgwick County treasurer, which may hold some sway in the Fourth, which is dominated politically by Sedgwick County. Estes’ relatively uncontroversial record makes him a GOP convention frontrunner. However, he lacks the conservative credentials some Republican contenders could bring to the table. In a convention setting dominated by party activists, this may end up counting for a lot.

            Numerous other names have been floated as potential GOP candidates. One big name is Alan Cobb, former Koch Industries lobbyist and Donald Trump’s national coalitions director. Experienced and with ties to the Koch empire, he would have no trouble raising money and would be popular at a convention. However, in a general election with a strong Democratic campaign, his lobbyist connections could prove to be a weak point. Additionally, some have positied that former congressman Tim Huelskamp might jump into the race, despite his loss to Roger Marshall in the 2016 primary election. With his combative nature, perceived carpetbagging, and extremism, Huelskamp would be wonderful for Democrats. Another name mentioned in the fray is county-commissioner elect Michael O’Donnell, easily one of the more controversial politicians Kansas has ever seen. In the swamp, O’Donnell would be the kingpin of the rats. From buying alcohol for minors to controversy over paying taxes to running a sleazy, inaccurate campaign against respected commissioner Tim Norton, O’Donnell is the epitome of everything wrong with politics as usual. Add to his record a high degree of support for Brownback's agenda, and Democrats would do well to field a strong candidate in this race.

            That brings me to the focal point of this article-which Democrats would be good candidates for the special election. Charismatic, policy-focused Wichita lawyer Dan Giroux, who ran a solid campaign but fell victim to the Hillary effect and an independent candidate, decided not to run in 2017, leaving Democrats scrambling to find a solid candidate for what is likely to be a low-turnout runoff election. A number of names have been mentioned as potential Democratic candidates, and most are seriously impressive. KMUW lists the potential contenders here. The names mentioned are: State House Minority Leader Jim Ward, State Rep. Henry Helgerson, former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer, former State Treasurer Dennis McKinney, and businesswoman Laura Lombard, along with Robert Tillman. Only two candidates have declared, Lombard and Tillman. Some contenders are stronger than others, which is why it’s important to break down strengths and weaknesses.

State Rep. Jim Ward

            I’ll begin with State Rep. Jim Ward, who serves the 86^th district, composed mainly of South Anybody who knows me knows I am partial to Rep. Ward, as he really helped inspire me to get involved in politics. In 7^th grade, I spent a day shadowing him in the legislature and became fascinated with politics, at one point asking how I could get more involved. I can attest to Jim Ward’s character and devotion to Kansas. During his time in the legislature, he has been a vocal champion of good causes, proposing minimum wage hikes, Medicaid expansion, and a host of other progressive goals. His take-no-prisoners style means he tells it like it is and fights for what he knows is right. With experience as a state senator, city council member, attorney, and state representative, Jim Ward has crucial experience. Furthermore, he knows how to win, consistently defeating Republicans by large margins and even coming out of a contested primary with another incumbent unscathed. He would be a formidable candidate and has also demonstrated the ability to fundraise well. Only one potential issue exists. Just over a week ago, Ward was elected House Minority Leader, upsetting incumbent moderate Rep. Tom Burroughs.  Whether or not he wants to shift his focus to a federal level race so soon remains to be seen, but regardless of whether or not Jim Ward runs, it’s great to have him as part  of our Democratic team.

Former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer

            The second candidate mentioned who I think stands out is former Wichita mayor Carl Brewer. Wichita itself is a relatively conservative city, having voted for John McCain, Mitt Romney, and (probably) Donald Trump. In fact, the 2015 mayoral election to replace term-limited Carl Brewer was headlined by  two Republicans, Jeff Longwell and Sam Williams. Despite the city’s conservative tilt, Carl Brewer twice won with astounding margins, defeating incumbent Carlos Mayans 61%-37% in 2007 and overcoming challenger Darrell Leffew by a 69%-30% margin in 2011. Brewer’s popularity owes itself in part to his down to earth, kind nature. I've met him a few times and he is very likable. People know who Brewer is and they like him, which matters thanks to Wichita’s large proportion of the Fourth District’s population.  Name recognition is crucial in a race with such a short time-frame and generally low turnout. Moreover, his record speaks for itself and helps explain his popularity. This video highlights some of his achievements, which are quite impressive, including spurring downtown revitalization, bringing a new airport to town, growing Wichita’s global linkages, updating infrastructure, making Wichita safer, and fostering partnerships with aviation companies to create jobs and boost educational opportunity. With a successful track record to run on, Brewer has a great background to get votes in Wichita. If Brewer can maximize base turnout in Wichita and cut into Republican margins in suburbs, he has the opportunity to do well. One potential liability, which may matter a lot outside of Wichita, is Carl Brewer’s affiliation with “Mayors Against Illegal Guns”, a Bloomberg-backed group that fights for common-sense gun control. The NRA and other extremists will surely spin this into something it’s not and damage Brewer’s stock in the district. This may hurt especially in suburbs and outside of Wichita. However, considering his successes, his affiliation may not be the biggest roadblock. I hope he takes a serious look at running, but considering he has turned down runs for higher office in the past,  the odds are he won't jump into the special election race.

          The third major contender I’ll focus on is former state treasurer Dennis McKinney. As the only candidate in the mix from outside of Wichita, he brings a different perspective and background to the table. McKinney has private sector, municipal, legislative, and executive experience, as a farmer, having served as a Kiowa County Commissioner for 3 years, a state representative for 18 years (including 5 as minority leader), and state treasurer for 2 years, he knows what it means to be a true public servant. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about his tenure serving the 116^th district is just how conservative the area is. With the boundaries he most recently served in, only 20% of voters in the 116^th were registered Democrats, compared to 58% who were registered Republicans. McKinney ran populist campaigns and proved able to fundraise and get his message out. Retail politics was clearly a strong suit, as shown by his performance in his district. After surviving the Greensburg Tornado, McKinney was one of the strongest forces behind the town’s successful rebuilding efforts, cementing his reputation as a leader. While he hasn’t been in elected office since losing his treasurer re-election bid to Ron Estes 58%-41% in 2010, that race remains important to look at. In a GOP wave year, where Kansas lost its last Democratic congressman and took blows statewide, Dennis McKinney performed well in rural areas. During that race (owing in part to his tenure as a state rep), he won 82% in Kiowa County, 69% in Pratt County, 69% in Comanche County, and 64% in Barber County, along with good margins in other Southwest Kansas counties. In those same counties, respectively, this year Hillary Clinton garnered 11%, 20%, 12%, and 13%. McKinney’s strength in rural Kansas could be seen elsewhere. In Ellis County (Hays), he pulled 42% of the vote (Hillary: 23%). In Marion, he got 43% (Hillary: 22%). In deep red Wallace County, he got 36% (Hillary: 6%). Even in Sedgwick County, running against the popular county treasurer in a lower turnout midterm, McKinney won 35% of the vote (Hillary: 37%). Dennis McKinney can boost Democratic strength all across the Fourth District and make inroads into areas that have lacked outreach in recent years. This can not only help propel McKinney to victory, but also lay the groundwork for Democratic success and organization for years to come. When rural counties receive more attention and resources from Democrats, the ticket does better and more Kansans' interests are represented. I would be especially interested to see a McKinney-Huelskamp race, considering Huelskamp's alienation of farm interests and McKinney's farm background. Nonetheless, McKinney would be a stellar candidate to go toe to toe with any of the aforementioned Republicans.

Former State Treasurer
Dennis McKinney

            Some of the other candidates also have impressive qualities. Henry Helgerson returned to the state legislature to represent East-Central Wichita after a hiatus and has immense private sector experience after having served as a state representative for 17 years and a state senator for 2 years. I will be honest-I didn’t know much about Rep. Helgerson. He would probably be a good candidate too.

            Entrepreneur Laura Lombard is definitely the most qualified candidate on foreign policy issues out of this bunch. She is the President and Executive Director of the Middle East & North Africa Consultants Association, which works to promote global business linkages. This impressive position is accompanied by a wealth of knowledge about foreign policy, which is sorely needed in congress. Lombard already seems to be fundraising, albeit through gofundme, which seems interesting. She has raised $2,725 in 10 days without creating much fanfare or garnering a large degree of attention. If Lombard can build name recognition and prove to be a good fundraiser, her private sector and policy-related experience will be major assets.

            The other declared candidate is Robert Tillman, who was the Democrats’ 2012 candidate after being defeated in the 2010 primary and lost another primary in 2016. Tillman’s reasons for running in 2012 were highlighted by mundane statements such as “I am running for Congress because my wife wants me to get a job”, “I want to know if I am the ‘chosen one’”, and “I'm running to learn more about how the United States Government works”. He does not have a website (for his failed 2016 campaign) or any campaign apparatus aside from his bright yellow “Vote Tillman” t-shirt. Clearly, with the aforementioned Republican vulnerabilities, Democrats need to find a serious candidate to run against any Republican.

            I believe that the three strongest candidates for the Democrats in the Fourth District are Jim Ward, Carl Brewer, and Dennis McKinney. While some of the others are promising, these three have the best shot at pulling off a win. On a purely personal level, I like all three, but gravitate towards Dennis McKinney. I really admire and look up to Rep. Ward, but I want to see him give his full attention to fighting Right Wing extremists in the Kansas House. Carl Brewer would be a fantastic candidate, but I personally prefer the more populist Dennis McKinney. He has important experience winning outside Wichita and has proven that he can swing Republicans to vote Democratic. Democrats have an opportunity coming up. Here’s to a strong campaign and a Democratic win in the Fourth District!